Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Gold

Raw:
People buying gold at 1100 per ounch are stupid. It is an useless comodity but the inflation on it is 300% in 8 years, 200% from the past 2 years.
They say, gold will always stay in value, the dollar is deflating. Duh, everyone knows that. The thing is when everyone does one thing, it is soon gona be overrated and turn a corner. History repeats itself over and over again, people don't see that, because they are that everyone who is driving it.
I have 2 believes:
Inflation is not gona happen, because only overflow of worthless paper- money wil rise it. Government are over printing, but per family is only getting their share of $9000. And they use it to pay down loans and save the rest. There isn't much money flowing around and hyperinflation is not going to kill us.
Macro economy however have infinate influencing factors, this balance can be breaken any moment, then we may be in trouble. But people rushing to gold? They are basically optimitic claiming that their nation are going to go bankrupt and everyone is gona to die, including themselves...
I believe reasonable people will work to not lead the nation to bankruptcy. And if one believe it will, better start packing and moving away instead putting 5% of their portfolio in metal. Not gona help.
But, who knows what Mr. Everybody's mood will be today?

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